German turbines which were mangled recently
in a storm.
the planet " or will the Government's carbon trading scheme simply line state coffers at your expense?
Did anyone listen or did vested interests rule the day ?
Dr Green, the author of a peer-reviewed paper auditing the forecasting methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), opposed the bill because he claimed it was based on "invalid climate forecasts".
He told Parliament's finance select committee that authors of the IPCC fourth assessment report provided sufficient information to observe predic tions violated 72 of 89 accepted principles of forecasting. There was insufficient information to judge how closely a further 51 principles had been followed.
"Some individual principles that were violated are so important that violation of any one of them alone invalidates the IPCC's forecasts," he said.
These IPCC forecasts drew on six years of research by 2500 scientists from more than 130 countries, and said global warming was "unequivocal" with human activity more than 90 percent likely to blame for an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, to 379 parts per million (ppm), up from 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution.
They warned that by 2050, there is very likely to be loss of high-value land, faster road deterioration, degraded beaches, and reduced farm and forestry production in southern and southeastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. The w armer temperatures and decreasing water resources would increase the burden of some diseases, and global sea levels would rise 59cm this century.
Professor Scott Armstrong, of Pennsylvania University -- who wrote the global warming forecast audit with Dr Green -- put in a written submission to the committee, claiming they had been unable to find a single "scientific" forecast of global warming.
" The precautionary principle argues that uncertainty is a basis for action; if one lacks knowledge, then some action should be taken—just in case. This happens when interest groups identify an issue that can help them to achieve their ends. If the interest group is successful in lobbying for an issue, politics replaces science, and government dictates follow. It brings to mind the slogan on the Ministry of Truth building in George Orwell’s 1984: “Ignorance is Strength.”We believe that proper scientific principles will lead to better decisions than will political principles, and that people will be better off if politicians have the courage to resist calls to action when uncertainty is high."
The latest paper from Dr Green (December 29 2008 ) shredding IPCC forecasts.
"Averaged over all horizons, IPCC errors were more than seven times greater than errors from the benchmark. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast and backcast horizons."
Benchmark forecasts for climate change:
Dr Green's web site.
In this 4-part link, Viscount Monckton, in an open letter to US presidential candidate Senator John McCain, treats the Republican candidate to a longish but very readable, and convincing lesson on the whole issue of "global warming" and emissions trading, which ought to be required reading for politicians everywhere. When you get to the end of each section, click on "Continue reading" to take you to the next section.
Check out the latest world temperature graphs.
Pre-industrial CO2 levels were about the same as today. How and why we are told otherwise?By Dr. Tim Ball Wednesday, December 10, 2008 ( linked here with the express approval of the author )
Placing too many turbines in the Manawatu increases generating inflexibility. They have to be spread geographically to overcome intermittency and increase reliabilty. This will not be achieved by errecting more turbines in the Manawatu.
Neptune Power has been granted resource consent for an experimental turbine capable of producing 1MW of power in 80m of water 4.5km off the south coast of Wellington.
Chris Bathurst, a director of the two-year-old Christchurch company, said installation of the tidal stream turbine could begin next summer.
"When we first started this people said it wasn't technically possible. Then they said the fishermen would never allow it."
But Bathurst said when the plan was outlined in meetings with stakeholders, including fishing groups and Forest & Bird, objections were overcome.
Greater Wellington Regional Council's approval of the trial last week was "big news", he said.
Bathurst, an engineer, and Neptune co-director David Beach, a physicist, have been working on the project for three years.
Bathurst's calculations suggest there is enough tidal movement in Cook Strait to generate 12GW of power, more than one-and-a-half times New Zealand's present generation capacity.
But tapping that energy would cost billions of dollars.
Neptune isn't disclosing financial details of the project, except to say technology providers and electricity network companies will be given first options to invest.
Bathurst would like up to a third of the value of the venture to be open to public investment.
An "awful lot of people" had already expressed interest, including a potential investor from China who emailed Bathurst within hours of resource consent being granted. Neptune is confident of the economics of the Cook Strait project, and will use the experimental turbine to study effects on marine life and the general seabed ecology.
A condition of the resource consent, granted for 10 years, is that Neptune submit an annual report to the council based on its observations. With the turbine in 80m of water, lack of sunlight will mean marine growth won't be an issue.
Neptune has been talking to lines company Vector about making use of the trial turbine's power - enough for about 500 homes.SEA POWER
* Installation of a $10m tidal stream turbine in Cook Strait could begin next summer.
Altering Natural Events
earthquakes have been made in USA.
The main problem with this approach is that the measures are far from reliable. For example, embankments (stop-banks) in New Zealand may prevent floods of moderate size and frequency, but sooner or later they are breached and/or overtopped when a major flood occurs, as at Paeroa, 1981; Mataura 1978; Opotiki, 1964; Whakatane 2004, Manawatu 2004; and many other places. In the meantime, stopbanks encourage intensification of human settlement in the path of the eventual flood.This problem is illustrated in Figure 8 for the area in Palmerston North affected by flooding from the Mangaone Stream. See page 12
Thus, as for post-disaster relief, pre-disaster measures that try to modify the cause or effects of a natural event may reduce some losses from smaller natural events, yet actually increase the natural hazard and with it disaster potential with respect lo larger more rare events.
"Who cares about Palmerston North anyway?"
Wind farms are not about reliable electrical generation. So why is an SOE like Mighty River Power attempting to sacrifice local amenity values on the altar of renewable energy generation?????? To claim that additional wind generation in the Manawatu increases reliability and security of supply is a joke at the expense of local residents.
Representation of electricity production over 24 hours, showing base, intermediate, and peak loads -- only peak load plants are able in most places to respond sufficiently quickly to variations in wind energy production. The Manawatu is already over-represented in intermittent wind energy production. Turbines have to shut down in high winds. This causes additional wear and tear on componentry.
Wind in California was unable to meet peak demand when it was needed most. It's no different here in the Manawatu.
A week of wind energy production in German Eon Netz grid -- huge swings. Similar variability in output is the norm here in the Manawatu. Thermal backup is required to be on hot standby. No wind farm or combination of wind farms has replaced a conventional generation facility anywhere in the world.
The Halkema report is an authoritative examination of the viability of wind generated electricity.
LESS FOR MORE: THE RUBE GOLDBERG NATURE OF INDUSTRIAL WIND DEVELOPMENT:
Major flaws in carbon offsetting, the UN's main mechanism for dealing with climate change, are investigated in this One Planet two-parter.
Carbon offsetting allows the developed world to offset its carbon emissions by paying for emission-cutting projects in the developing world. Integral to this is the "additionality" test whereby the developing world projects must show that without the additional (carbon-credit) money, the projects would not, and could not be, implemented.
If these projects would have taken place in any case, then no emissions are being saved and millions of dollars will have been wasted.
Presenter/Mark Gregory, Producer/David Edmonds
Carbon trading in
GAO Unable to Verify Effectiveness
of International Carbon Markets
December 2, 2008
WASHINGTON – The
Government Accountability Office today released its report about the European
Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme and international carbon offset scheme, the Clean Development Mechanism. GAO found that the available information on the Emissions Trading Scheme could not substantiate either emissions reductions or clear economic benefits, and that negative economic effects could occur if the European Union further reduced emissions allowances.
In July 2007, following news reports raising questions about the cost-effectiveness and integrity of the ETS and CDM, U.S. Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky., then-ranking member of the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, asked GAO to examine the experience to date of the ETS and CDM. U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Domestic Policy Subcommittee, also joined the request.
The Republicans wanted to know how well the two markets
actually control greenhouse gases and whether available information substantiates the net benefits of the programs. They also sought GAO’s assessment of lessons from the international experience that might apply to upcoming congressional deliberation of carbon-energy rationing or reduction schemes.
“As European nations attempt to deal with the hardships of the current economic crisis, the harsh reality of carbon-energy rationing schemes is hitting home. Across Europe at this moment, environmental technocrats’ plans for larger emissions reductions and restraints on carbon-based energy supply are literally melting away in the heat of economic reality,” Barton said. “This report identifies some of the potential risks and concerns about regulatory cap and trade and related rationing schemes. It further underscores my concerns that we should not follow Europe’s course as it creates potential economic disaster for its citizens.”
“The GAO’s studies of both the European and
domestic carbon emissions reduction schemes have raised serious doubts about their effectiveness,” Issa said. “The federal government certainly shouldn’t spend taxpayer dollars on uncertain and unverified benefits until critical questions are fully answered.”
“The GAO report indicates that enacting a cap
and trade system in the midst of a recession would only further harm our economy,” said U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Ill., current ranking member on the Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee. “In addition, the
whole idea of a cap and trade system isn't a proven method of actually reducing
carbon emissions. The American public will end up the victims and will have to pay more for energy and many other products.”
A copy of the report
can be found here
Industry forced toImpact on the land - images from Tararua 3
admit environmental benefits of wind power only half of what previously
Wind farm benefits
'overstated' 21 Dec 2008
So if so called wind farm "CO2 reduction benefits" have been exposed as lies, as in the UK, does this mean that to have similar " benefits " here there would need to be 1,012 turbines on the hills behind the city and not the projected total of 506 ??
So will this also mean that they will stop clear felling the CO2 absorbing pine forests which are currently well below the existing turbines, or are they being felled because of the fire risk ??
A LEADING power company has claimed wind energy is so unreliable that even if 13,000 turbines are built to meet EU renewable energy targets, they could be relied on to provide only 7 per cent of the country's peak winter electricity demand.
E.On has argued that, during the coldest days of winter, so little wind blows that 92 per cent of installed wind capacity would have to be backed up by traditional power stations.It argues this would require new coal-fired power stations to be built so they could be used in an emergency when little wind blows.This, E.On suggests, will mean that, to meet renewable targets of 20 per cent of energy being provided from renewables by 2020, the UK's installed power base will need to rise from 76 gigawatts today to more than 100GW.The company estimates this could cost £100 billion.
The Scotsman online.
Ministers have pledged to provide 20 per cent of the country's energy from renewable sources by 2020 and have relied on wind energy to provide almost all of the capacity.
By analysing the average power output possible from wind turbines and comparing it to the amount of land needed to house each turbine, Professor MacKay believes wind farms will need at least five times more land than has been previously estimated.
His research has raised further doubts over the viability of the Government's push for wind power.
Critics insist that wind energy is too unreliable to replace the creaking network of fossil fuel power stations and would require an extensive network of back up power stations to provide energy on calm days.
Wind farms have also faced intense opposition from rural campaigners who say the huge turbines, which can be up to 400 feet tall, are spoiling the countryside and pose a risk to wildlife.
Professor MacKay, who has published a new book that examines a range of different renewable energy sources, insists he is a strong supporter of wind energy.
His calculations show, however, that current plans to build wind farms with a capacity of 33 gigawatts offshore would produce only enough energy to provide each person in the UK with 4.4 kilowatt hours of energy per day.
He said: "The average energy used per person in the UK is 125 kilowatt hours per day. To achieve even 20 kilowatt hours per day per person it will require enough wind turbines to cover an area the size of Wales.
"It is an incredibly large area and with the difficulties in getting planning, it is hard to imagine how it could be achieved. The government needs to look at some of the other options such as tide energy. We need a plan that adds up."
Professor MacKay's calculations will alarm opponents of wind farms who fear the countryside is already blighted with unsightly turbines that are failing to provide a reliable alternative to fossil fuels.
Wind farm developers already rely upon extensive subsidies to help them earn a profit and energy experts fear paying such subsidies for technology that is already in use is stifling development of alternative sources of energy.
There are currently more than 189 wind farms, with 2,136 turbines, in operation around the UK. According to the British Wind Energy Association, the body that represents the wind industry, another 173 wind farms, are either being constructed or awaiting construction.
Plans for a further 266 wind farms are being considered by planning authorities.
Submissions on the Kahuterawa Outdoor Recreation Area draft management plan closed August 13th, 5 days after MRP lodged its application for a resource consent. This timing is no coincidence.
document has been denied. No surprise as to why.
Wind turbines block radar.( An issue for Palmerston North airport and Ohakea )
Shell, Danish firm Dong Energy and Scottish Power have cancelled the £800m Cirrus Array project off the northwest coast after five years and millions of pounds in investment.
The consortium blamed Ministry of Defence concerns over radar interference from turbines.Less than a month ago, Shell denied a Sunday Times report that it had exited the project. However, on Friday the company confirmed that it had no plans for further investment in the UK wind sector.
See quotes from this Government submission 28 August 2008.
Central Wind windfarm
Ministry for the
Wind is an intermittent source, and this intermittency needs to be carefully factored into the electricity systems operations. However, the Central Wind windfarm will also promote a reliable electricity supply through its geographical location. Most of New Zealand’s wind generation at present is in the Manawatu. Spreading windfarms across New Zealand reduces the risk of disruptions to the electricity supply if the wind is not blowing at a particular location.
Well at last something we can agree on.